Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions Strategy Based on the Gray Model between Carbon Emissions and Urban Spatial Expansion for a Built-Up Area

Urban spatial expansion affects almost every dimension of sustainable urban development. A good grasp the relationship between evolution and carbon emissions can be key to governance. As a central city in region national low-carbon pilot city, Changsha has experienced rapid construction land growing emissions. In this paper, four variable factors five emission were used for case 1979, 1996, 2003, 2008, 2013 2016. Based on “double carbon” constraint target, total emissions, carbon-emission intensity per capita indices forecasted until 2030. They are 87.29 million t-CO2, 0.45 t-CO2/CNY104 8.73 t-CO2/person, respectively. The scale is controlled at 889.61; residential, commercial service land, industrial road square scales 231.3 km2, 143.88 150.17 km2 135.83 intensity, compactness shortest travel distance 6.19, 0.236 96,086.76 km, results analysis provide scientific guidance next step territorial master planning